Since the outbreak of new military tensions between Israel and Iran, the whole world has been watching with concern. Although this conflict is taking place thousands of kilometres away, its consequences are also being felt here, especially in the price of oil and oil derivatives such as the diesel we use in cars and heating systems.
Why are oil prices rising?
The oil market is extremely sensitive to geopolitical conflicts. In this case, the concern is that Iran is a key player within OPEC and controls access to the Strait of Hormuz, through which some 20% of the world's oil supply transits. Any real threat of blockade or escalation in the area immediately translates into market tension.
For this reason, analysts have estimated possible increases of 15% and up to 30% in the price of Brent crude oil (the European benchmark), if the conflict worsens or is prolonged.
And how does that affect our wallets?
Let's see how a 15% and 30% rise in Brent would impact on the price of diesel, both for vehicles and heating, taking current prices as a reference:
- Current Brent crude oil price: ~75 $/barrel
- Current price of diesel A (vehicle): 1,509 €/L
- Current price of heating oil B (heating): 1,199 €/L
Simulation 1: Rise in Brent crude from 15%
- New Brent crude oil price estimate: 86,25 $/barrel
- Expected diesel fuel price increase: +5,5 % approx.
| Product | Calculation | Estimated price (€) |
| Diesel for cars | 1,509 € × 1,055 | 1,592 €/L |
| Heating oil | 1,199 € × 1,055 | 1,265 €/L |
Simulation 2: 30% Brent Rise
- New Brent crude oil price estimate97,50 $/barrel
- Expected diesel fuel price increase: +11 % approx.
| Product | Calculation | Estimated price (€) |
| Diesel for cars | 1,509 € × 1,11 | 1,675 €/L |
| Heating oil | 1,199 € × 1,11 | 1,331 €/L |
Real examples: How much more will we pay?
Filling the car's tank (50 L)
| Scenario | Price per litre | Total cost | Difference |
| Today | 1,509 €/L | 75,45 € | - |
| +15 % Brent | 1,592 €/L | 79,60 € | +4,15 € |
| +30 % Brent | 1,675 €/L | 83,75 € | +8,30 € |
Filling the heating oil tank (1.000 L)
| Scenario | Price per litre | Total cost | Difference |
| Today | 1,199 €/L | 1.199,00 € | - |
| +15 % Brent | 1,265 €/L | 1.265,00 € | +66,00 € |
| +30 % Brent | 1,331 €/L | 1.331,00 € | +132,00 € |
What further consequences can this rise have?
A rise in the price of diesel fuel not only has an impact on domestic consumption. It also makes it more expensive:
- Transport of goods, affecting prices in supermarkets.
- Agricultural production, through the use of machinery and transport.
- Headline inflation, fuelled by the cost of energy.
All this generates a chain of price increases that we all notice, even if we do not use a car or a diesel boiler.
When can the situation stabilise?
For now, there is no sign of an immediate de-escalation. International powers are exerting pressure through diplomatic channels, but the conflict remains active. If the confrontation remains indirect or is limited to ad hoc attacks without blocking oil routes, prices could stabilise in the coming weeks.
However, if the conflict escalates or affects critical areas of supply, we could enter a prolonged phase of high oil prices.
Conclusion
A war in the Middle East not only has political and human consequences, it also affects us economically, even in something as mundane as filling the tank of the car or heating the house.
A 30% rise in the price of Brent crude oil can make a refueling cost 5 to 10 € more and fill the boiler up to 140 € more. Although these figures can be assumed in the short term, if the conflict drags on, this cost overrun could have a significant impact on the domestic economy and on the country as a whole.
International diplomacy is, for now, the only clear way to prevent this energy escalation from becoming yet another burden for millions of households.